Core Service
Supply Chain Forecasting
Logistics optimization and demand planning with time series and causal models
Overview
Supply chain forecasting enables proactive planning, optimized inventory levels, and resilient logistics operations. Our solutions combine time series forecasting, causal modeling, and optimization to predict demand, plan capacity, and mitigate supply chain risks—balancing service levels with inventory costs across multi-echelon networks.
Key Features
Hierarchical Forecasting
Coherent forecasts across product hierarchies, geographic regions, and time horizons with top-down, bottom-up, and middle-out reconciliation.
Scenario Planning
Model multiple demand and supply scenarios (best/worst/likely) with Monte Carlo simulation for risk-adjusted planning and safety stock optimization.
Risk Mitigation Strategies
Identify supply chain vulnerabilities, model disruption impacts, and develop contingency plans for supplier failures, logistics delays, and demand shocks.
Inventory Optimization
Multi-echelon inventory optimization balancing holding costs, service levels, and lead times across distribution networks.
Technical Approach
Our supply chain forecasting methodology delivers actionable insights:
- Data Integration: Consolidate sales history, promotions, pricing, weather, economic indicators, and external signals
- Feature Engineering: Create lag features, promotional effects, seasonality components, and leading indicators
- Model Ensemble: Combine statistical models (ARIMA, ETS) with machine learning (XGBoost, Prophet) for robust forecasts
- Bias Correction: Adjust for systematic forecast errors and incorporate human judgment where appropriate
- S&OP Integration: Connect forecasts to Sales & Operations Planning processes with collaboration workflows
Use Cases
Supply chain forecasting optimizes operations across the value chain:
- Demand Planning: Predict SKU-level demand across channels for inventory replenishment and production planning
- Capacity Planning: Forecast warehouse space, transportation capacity, and labor requirements
- New Product Introduction: Predict demand for new products using analogous product modeling and test market data
- Promotional Planning: Quantify lift from promotions and optimize trade spending for maximum ROI
Expected Outcomes
Supply chain forecasting delivers measurable business value:
- 15-30% improvement in forecast accuracy (MAPE reduction)
- 20-35% reduction in inventory holding costs while maintaining service levels
- 10-20% reduction in stockouts and lost sales
- Improved agility with 3-12 month rolling forecasts and scenario analysis
Ready to Optimize Your Supply Chain?
Let's discuss how forecasting can improve your demand planning and reduce inventory costs.